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Triad – Improving Stock Return Forcasts: A “Fair-Value” CAPE Approach

Mar 7, 2018 12:00 am

Are U.S. stock prices overvalued? U.S. stock valuations are nearing historical highs, but some investors are wondering whether this bull market could become a bubble. More importantly, they’re wondering what to do if that’s the case.

This presentation examines U.S. stock prices from an over-/under-valuation perspective using Vanguard’s fair-value cyclically adjusted price earnings (CAPE) approach that was recently published in the Journal of Portfolio Management.*

The presentation will highlight:

  • Why comparison against long-term average valuations paints an incomplete picture regarding U.S. stocks.
  • A better valuation metric benchmark and Vanguard’s model that improves stock return forecasts recently published in the Journal of Portfolio Management.*
  • Vanguard’s market outlook, including for U.S. stocks.
  • Actionable insights on how to respond to elevated stock prices.


Harshdeep Ahluwalia


Mar 7, 2018
12:00 am
Event Category:


Forsyth Country Club
Winston Salem, NC United States